Prediction markets

Predictions lists prediction markets from Hyperliquid (its outcome markets), Polymarket and predict.fun side by side. Each market is a question with outcomes: who wins a game, where Bitcoin closes, what the Fed decides.

Shares and chances

A share of the outcome that happens pays $1 when the market settles, and a share of any other outcome pays nothing.

The price of a share is the market's chance. A Yes share at 62¢ means traders put it at about 62%, and $100 on it buys about 161 shares that pay $161 if Yes wins.

Connect your accounts

Prow finds the accounts of your wallets on each venue by itself, but nothing shows as yours (balances, bets, the totals at the top of Predictions) until you connect it. When you open Predictions with nothing connected, a short guide explains how it works, then shows what Prow found on each venue with its money and what connecting does. One Connect button connects them in order:

• Hyperliquid: the account you trade with on Prow. If this device already has its trading key, it's connected with no signature; if not, your wallet signs once to turn trading on. No account? Connect one from its row.
• Polymarket: each polymarket.com account of your wallets, older ones too. Your wallet signs once to connect it. If you have none, Prow creates one for you: free, with no pop-ups.
• predict.fun: each of your wallets with money, bets or trading approvals there. Your wallet signs once to sign in, and approves trading if that is not done (small BNB Chain transactions paid in BNB). If you have none, Prow creates one for you with your Prow wallet; it needs a little BNB for the approvals, and the guide says how much.

Signed in with MetaMask or another wallet of your own? Then you have no Prow wallet. When Prow creates an account for you, it creates your Prow wallet first, with no signature.

Accounts of your own wallet (MetaMask and others) ask you to confirm each bet in the wallet: that's how Polymarket and predict.fun work with your own wallet. Accounts of your Prow wallet need no pop-ups.

Skipped it? Connect your accounts any time, from Connect accounts at the top of Predictions or in My bets. Your prediction accounts list has Connect a venue to add another venue or account. Betting from an account that isn't connected connects it in the bet ticket first.

Find a market

Predictions has three views, switched at the top: Markets, Arbitrage and My bets. Markets is the feed of everything you can bet on.

• Featured. The card at the top shows the busiest open markets (by 24h volume) of the category and venues you picked, up to five, one at a time. A game in play comes first. Use the arrows, the dots or a swipe to move between them.
• Categories. The tabs are All, Sports, Esports, Crypto, Politics, Economy, Finance, Tech, Culture and World. A tab shows only while it has markets on the venues you have on.
• Quick filters. The chips under the tabs are check boxes. Live is what is in play now, and each other chip is one coin, league or topic, such as BTC or NFL. Press a chip to turn it on or off, as many as you like: the list shows the markets of any chip that is on, so La Liga and EPL together show both. Live narrows instead of adding: with it on, only what is in play now shows, among the chips you picked, or everything in play when you picked none. With two or more on, Clear at the end of the row turns them all off. Soccer, Basketball, Hockey and Baseball each gather every league of the sport in one chip.
• Search. Type a team, a coin, a person or a word from the question. Every word you type has to match something in the market. On a phone or tablet, the magnifier next to the bell opens the field.
• Venues. One chip per venue (Hyperliquid, Polymarket, predict.fun) switches that venue's markets off and on. One venue always stays on. The filter covers the list, Featured and Arbitrage, and the bet ticket leaves a switched-off venue out when it picks where a bet goes.
• When. Any time (the default), Today, This week (the next 7 days), This month (the next 30) or Later (further out), by the date a row shows for when it starts or ends: a game's start, otherwise the market's end. This week and This month include the nearer ones, and Today also has games in play. A market past its date that still waits for a result, a game marked Live included, shows only under Any time. It filters the list, not Featured or Arbitrage.
• Sort. Trending (24h volume), Ending soon, New or Biggest gap (the biggest price gap between venues first).

Prow remembers the venues you switch off, on this device, and not the ones you leave on. A venue Prow adds later therefore shows up for you without a step.

Each row shows the market, its outcomes with a button per side, the 24h volume, when it ends or starts and the logos of the venues that list it, with Live and New marks. The list shows 20 markets a page. Your tab, sort, time, filters, search and page stay in the address, so Back from a market returns you to the list as you left it.

Tap a market to open its page. It shows the chance chart, the prices on each venue with Best price on the cheaper one, the order book and Your position. The Rules card says who decides, who settles, how a dispute works and the deadline. Similar markets on other venues are listed too. A game can also list its spreads and totals. On a computer the bet ticket sits in the right column. On a phone or tablet, the Yes and No (or team) buttons at the bottom open it.

How a bet works

1. Pick a market and a side

   Yes or No, or one of the two teams of a game. The list shows each side's chance; in the bet ticket each side shows its price and what $1 turns into if it wins, for example "x1.61".

2. Enter the amount

   Prow shows what you're paid if you win. Tap Details for the shares you get, the average price, the fees and the account the bet goes from. A big bet on a thin market moves the price. Details lists the Price impact once it is over 1%, and over 5% the Details row itself turns amber and reads, for example, "Price impact 10.3%". Bet less, or use a limit bet, to keep your price.

3. Confirm

   A market bet fills now at the best prices on the book, never worse than the cap shown on Details ("Fills at 60¢ or better"). A limit bet waits at your price until it fills or you cancel it under Orders; its price field says whether it fills now or waits.

4. Sell or hold

   Sell while trading is open to take a profit or cut a loss. If you hold, winning shares turn into $1 each when it settles.

Where a bet goes

Many markets are listed on more than one venue, and their page shows each venue's price under Prices by venue (Outcomes, for a market with several outcomes). The bet ticket sends your bet to one of them, in this order:

1. The venue you picked on the page. The venue name under the ticket's title is a button with a small arrow. It opens a list of every venue with the price of your side, what $1 pays, Best price on the cheaper one, what you hold there and, in plain words, why a bet there can't go ahead. A venue's own button in Prices by venue or in the outcomes table picks it too. Your pick holds for the page's other outcomes.
2. Where you already hold the outcome in a connected account, either side. With positions on several venues, the larger one.
3. The cheapest of your connected venues.
4. Otherwise the cheapest venue, or the first one listed if none quotes a price. A venue that quotes no price is never the cheapest.

Your venue filter comes first: steps 2 to 4 only look at the venues it leaves on, so Prow never chooses a venue you switched off while a venue that is on lists the market. When Prow chooses for you, it also skips a venue where the market is closed, that doesn't take bets from your country (where Prow knows it) or where Prow can't place bets. If every venue that is on is like that, Prow still chooses one of them, and its ticket says why a bet can't go ahead. Once it has chosen a venue for an outcome it keeps it, so a price that ticks past another venue's never moves a bet you are looking at. You can pick any venue from the list, a switched-off one too, and a venue you haven't connected shows its step on its ticket. Choosing another venue keeps Buy or Sell and the dollars you typed. The venue list shows the venues that are on first, then the others. When you sell, it shows what each venue pays and, within those two groups, puts the venues where you hold the outcome first.

My bets

Your bets, open orders and history are under Predictions > My bets. They also show on Portfolio: tap the Predictions card for your cash, your bets and winnings to claim, and their value counts in the Portfolio total. See Portfolio overview.

The bar at the top shows Value, Unrealized PnL, Settled PnL and Open orders. Under it:

• Open: each bet with its shares, what a share cost, its price now, its value, its PnL and what it pays if it wins. Sell opens the sale ticket for it. A bet that won shows Claim instead.
• Orders: the limit bets that wait on the book, with Cancel and Cancel all.
• History: the bets that ended in the last 30 days, newest first, as Won, Lost, Sold or Split (a market that settled 50-50), with what each paid out, its PnL after fees and the day it ended. The line under the list counts the last 30 days, and Show older bets lists the rest.

A Polymarket bet that lost shows in History as Lost even if you never redeemed it. Polymarket lists such a bet only among your open positions and pays nothing on it, so it has no claim and no payout row of its own. Prow shows it with Paid out $0.00, the whole loss after fees as its PnL, and the day its market resolved. A predict.fun bet that lost just leaves Open when its market resolves, and History doesn't list it.

A bet you just placed shows in My bets, in Bets and Cash at the top, and on Portfolio within a moment. The venues list a new bet a few seconds after it fills, so Prow shows it from the venue's answer meanwhile, asks the venue again after 2, 5, 10, 20 and 40 seconds, and shows the venue's own numbers as soon as they have it. Portfolio's Predictions card, its total and In bets now are added up from the same bets, so those three match. The top bar and the accounts panel count a bet at the value the venue reports for it, while Portfolio and My bets price it from the market's latest price, so they can differ slightly while prices move.

For Polymarket bets, results also arrive in the bell: Your bet won, Your bet lost and Winnings paid. They come as a push too, if you turned push on.

Settlement and claims

When a market settles, each share of the outcome that happened pays $1 and every other share pays $0. Each venue settles by its own rules, which the market's Rules card lists, and the venue sections below add the details.

• Hyperliquid pays winnings into your account by itself. There is nothing to claim.
• Polymarket and predict.fun need a claim. A bet that won shows You won $42.00 at the top of My bets, Claim on its row and Claim all next to the tabs, and Portfolio lists it under Needs attention. Claim $42.00 opens a window with what you get and where it goes, and Claimed confirms the money is in your cash on that venue, ready to bet with.
• A bet that lost pays $0, and there is nothing to claim. On Hyperliquid and Polymarket it shows in History as Lost.

Hyperliquid

• Your account, your key. Bets use your connected Hyperliquid account and the same trading key as your trades. It can place and cancel bets; it can't withdraw or move money.
• Money. Bets are paid from your spot USDC. If your USDC sits in perps (a standard account), Prow offers to move it to spot with one wallet signature. Unified accounts bet from their one balance.
• Minimum. A buy has to be worth at least $1, in whole shares.
• Settlement. Automatic: winning shares turn into USDC in your account, with nothing to claim.
• Who settles. Hyperliquid's own markets, such as the daily Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and HYPE ones, settle on Hyperliquid's own price. The other markets are listed by their deployers (outcome.xyz, Trade[XYZ], Skew and others), and the deployer settles its market alone, with no dispute window. Each market shows its deployer and its rules.
• Countries. Hyperliquid doesn't offer prediction markets to some accounts and countries (its own check). When it doesn't, the bet button turns grey and reads Not available in your country, Not available in the UK or Limited by Hyperliquid, with the reason above it.

Polymarket

• Your own Polymarket wallet. Bets go from your browser to Polymarket with a Polymarket wallet that belongs to you (owned by your Prow wallet, or by another wallet you pick). If it isn't connected, the first bet connects it, once. Your money stays in that wallet.
• Older accounts. An older polymarket.com account of a MetaMask or Rabby wallet bets and sells through Prow too, but polymarket.com sets its trading approvals. If the ticket asks you to turn trading on there, tap Open polymarket.com, turn it on once, then come back and tap Check again. An account made with email shows in Prow as view only: bet from it on polymarket.com.
• Countries. Polymarket doesn't take bets from many countries. Prow asks Polymarket where you are. If it says no, the bet button turns grey and reads Not available in your country, and the note above it has See it on polymarket.com to open the market there. What you already hold stays in your Polymarket account. The accounts list says the same and offers no deposit.
• Settlement. Results are proposed through UMA. Anyone can dispute a proposal during its challenge window, 2 hours unless the market's rules say another time; a disputed result goes to a UMA vote and can take several days. Winning shares are claimed from My bets, or from Needs attention on Portfolio's Predictions account: Claim shows what you get and where it goes, then Claimed confirms the money is in your Polymarket cash.

predict.fun

• Your own wallet. Bets go out from your Prow wallet (or another wallet you pick) on BNB Chain and are paid in its USDT. The wallet is your predict.fun account, so your money stays in it.
• Network fees. Turning on trading once and claiming winnings are BNB Chain transactions paid in BNB. Keep a little BNB in the same wallet; 0.001 BNB lasts a long while.
• Minimum. An order has to be worth at least $1.
• Countries. predict.fun doesn't take bets from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium, Taiwan and sanctioned places. Prow checks this before you connect it, and from those places the bet button turns grey and reads Not available in your country.
• Settlement. Results are proposed through UMA and can be disputed; its Up or Down markets settle on Chainlink price data. Winning shares are claimed from My bets or from Portfolio's Predictions account, one BNB Chain transaction each.

Fees

The ticket shows every fee before you confirm. From Jan 1, 2027, Hyperliquid asks you to approve Prow's 1% once with your wallet before your next bet; selling never waits for it.

Arbitrage and price gaps

The same event often trades on two venues at different prices. If one side on one venue and the opposite side on another cost less than $1 together after fees, one of them pays $1 at settlement, as long as both venues settle the event the same way. Arbitrage lists the pairs that keep at least 0.5% after every fee, and closest gaps the pairs that come near. It compares two venues, so it needs at least two of them switched on in the venue filter.

On a pair, Buy both opens one ticket for it. You type one amount and Prow buys the same number of shares on each venue, one after the other, the thinner book first. If the second order doesn't fill all of it, the ticket says so and offers Try again or to sell the extra shares of the first leg.

Before you bet

• Prediction markets count as gambling in many countries. Check what applies where you live.
• Prices can jump on news and during games. Limit bets protect your price; market bets fill at the book.
• Past prices and chances don't predict results.
• A venue that doesn't take bets from your country shows Not available in your country. See Bets not available in your country.