Hyperliquid prediction markets (HIP-4) explained

Yes, Hyperliquid has prediction markets. They are called outcome markets and are defined by HIP-4, a Hyperliquid improvement proposal that went live on mainnet on May 2, 2026. An outcome is a fully collateralized contract that settles to $1 or $0, with no leverage and no liquidation, so the most you can lose on a bet is what you paid. This guide explains how HIP-4 markets work, who creates and settles them, what they cost, and how they compare with Polymarket. Facts are as of November 11, 2026; sources are under Sources.

What are Hyperliquid outcome markets?

An outcome market is a question about the future with two sides, usually Yes and No. You buy shares of a side. When the market settles, each share of the side that happened pays $1 and each share of the other side pays $0. A share's price is the market's chance: at 40¢, traders put the event at about 40%.

Hyperliquid's own text for HIP-4 says outcomes are "fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range" and that trading "does not involve leverage or liquidations". Fully collateralized means every $1 a winning share pays is already backed. That is why nobody can be liquidated, and why you never owe more than you paid.

Some details from the proposal:

• Each outcome has two sides, named by the market, most often Yes and No.
• The Yes and No order books of one outcome are merged. A buy of Yes at 40¢ is the same trade as a sell of No at 60¢.
• A question groups related outcomes, such as the teams of one tournament. Multi-outcome markets were not part of the first mainnet release.
• Settlement is automatic. The proposal describes no claim step: winning shares turn into money in your account.

How is HIP-4 different from HIP-1, HIP-2 and HIP-3?

People search "HIP" as a family, so here is the short map. HIP-1 is Hyperliquid's native token standard, HIP-2 is Hyperliquidity (automated liquidity for new spot tokens), HIP-3 lets builders deploy their own perpetual futures markets, and HIP-4 adds outcome markets. HIP-3 and HIP-4 share an idea: Hyperliquid runs the exchange and outside teams, called deployers, list the markets. The big difference is risk. A perp market can liquidate you. An outcome market cannot, because you pay the full price up front.

How do outcome markets settle?

It depends on who made the market.

Hyperliquid's own markets. These are the recurring price markets, such as whether Bitcoin, Ether, Solana or HYPE goes up or down over a day. The first one, for Bitcoin, settles daily at 06:00 UTC on Hyperliquid's own mark price, so no outside oracle is involved. Hyperliquid has also run a market on real-world data: in late May 2026 it listed one on the May CPI inflation figure, where its validators vote on deployment and settlement.

Deployer markets. Teams such as outcome.xyz, Trade[XYZ] and Skew list the other markets, from sports to short price windows. Each deployer defines and settles its own markets. In Prow, the market's Rules card names the deployer.

Who can create a Hyperliquid prediction market?

At launch, Hyperliquid's validators decided which markets existed. In July 2026, Hyperliquid announced that deployment would open to outside teams, and it did on August 29, 2026, according to 4pillars Research. Outcome.xyz and Skew each posted the stake, which The Block reported as 500,000 HYPE, locked for six months. Deployers pick from market templates that validators approve, and validators can vote to cut the stake if a deployer defines a market badly, settles it wrongly, or fails to settle within a week. Deployers can set fees on their own markets, reportedly up to 50%. Hyperliquid's own docs do not list these terms, and The Block called them preliminary in July, so check the current stake before you rely on the number.

What does it cost to bet on Hyperliquid?

The numbers below are the base tier, before volume discounts.

• Buying: Hyperliquid's fees page says outcome trading charges fees only when you close or settle, not when you open. (The HIP-4 page still says fees are zero for initial testing. 4pillars reports that Hyperliquid's protocol fee switched on August 15, 2026, so that line looks out of date.)
• Selling or settlement: Hyperliquid's spot fee applies when you sell or when a winning share pays out, 0.07% of the amount at the base tier. On deployer markets it can be about twice that, depending on the deployer's fee setting.
• Prow: 0% on Hyperliquid bets until the end of 2026, then 1% of the amount. It is a builder fee that you approve once with your wallet, and selling never waits for that approval. See Hyperliquid builder fees.

The bet ticket in Prow shows every fee before you confirm.

Hyperliquid vs Polymarket: what is different?

Both sell shares that pay $1 or $0. The difference is in how they are built.

In detail: Hyperliquid settles its own recurring markets on its own price, and the deployer alone settles the rest. Polymarket uses UMA's oracle, where a dispute can lead to a vote. On Hyperliquid, winnings arrive by themselves and you pay nothing to buy; on Polymarket you claim from your account. Hyperliquid holds USDC in your spot balance, while Polymarket uses pUSD on Polygon, backed by USDC. A market bet in Prow is at least $1, in whole shares on Hyperliquid. Polymarket's taker fee applies on most categories. Hyperliquid does not offer outcome markets to some accounts and countries, and Polymarket is closed to many.

Another difference is the account. A Hyperliquid account holds perps, spot and outcome shares together, so your USDC sits where you already trade. Polymarket needs its own wallet and its own money on Polygon. For a side-by-side of Polymarket, predict.fun and Hyperliquid in one app, see Polymarket, predict.fun and Hyperliquid bets in one app.

How do you bet on a Hyperliquid outcome market?

You can bet on hyperliquid.xyz itself or through an app that places the orders for you. Here is the path in Prow Predictions:

1. Connect Hyperliquid. Open Predictions and press Connect. If this device already has your trading key, nothing is signed. If not, your wallet signs once to turn trading on. No Hyperliquid account yet? Connect one from its row.
2. Put USDC in your spot balance. Bets are paid from spot USDC. If your USDC sits in perps, Prow offers to move it with one wallet signature. Unified accounts bet from their one balance.
3. Pick a market and a side. Use the feed filters, or search for a coin or team. The ticket shows each side's price and what $1 turns into if it wins.
4. Enter an amount. A buy must be worth at least $1, in whole shares. Details shows the shares, the average price and the fees.
5. Confirm. A market bet fills now at the best prices, never worse than the cap shown. A limit bet waits at your price until it fills or you cancel it. No wallet pop-up appears: the trading key on your device signs. It can place and cancel bets, but it cannot withdraw or move your money. See Hyperliquid agent wallets.
6. Sell or hold. Sell before the market settles, or hold. At settlement winning shares become USDC in your account with nothing to claim.

On Hyperliquid, your order is one buy on the market's order book. Prow adds the feed, the comparison with other venues and your list of bets. Your money stays in your own Hyperliquid account. The Prediction markets docs cover each step in more detail.

What does a bet look like in numbers?

Say a daily Bitcoin market asks whether Bitcoin will go Up or Down over the day, and Up trades at 40¢. You buy 200 Up shares.

• Cost: 200 × $0.40 = $80. Hyperliquid charges nothing to buy, and Prow charges 0% until the end of 2026.
• If Up wins: 200 shares × $1 = $200. Hyperliquid's fee at about 0.07% is $0.14, so you receive about $199.86, which is $119.86 more than you paid.
• If Down wins: your shares pay $0 and you lose the $80. That is the most you can lose.

A price of 40¢ means the market gives Up a 40% chance, so this is a fair price for a 40% event, not a sure gain. After the free period, Prow adds 1% of the amount, which is $0.80 on an $80 bet. This example is a Hyperliquid-run market. On a deployer market the settlement fee can be about twice as large, $0.28.

Which markets exist right now?

Outcome markets on Hyperliquid cover crypto prices and macro data, and deployers have listed games and tournaments too. The list changes, because deployers can only use templates that validators approve. Hyperliquid lists the recurring daily Bitcoin, Ether, Solana and HYPE markets itself. Outside deployers add short price windows, for example outcome.xyz's Up or Down series. Prow's feed lists them next to Polymarket and predict.fun, and the live feed shows the busiest ones now.

Volume is smaller than on Polymarket. The Block reported about $100 million traded in HIP-4's first month. Numbers from different trackers disagree, so look at a market's own volume before you bet. Thin markets move the price more, which the ticket's Details shows as price impact.

Where is it available?

Hyperliquid applies its own rules by where you are and by account. Some accounts and countries are not offered outcome markets, even though perps and spot still work. Prow does not work around these rules. When Hyperliquid refuses, Prow's bet button turns grey and says Not available in your country or Limited by Hyperliquid. Prow itself is not available to people in the US, UK, EU, UAE, Ontario (Canada), Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia, Belarus, and occupied regions of Ukraine.

Frequently asked questions

Does Hyperliquid have prediction markets?

Yes. Hyperliquid calls them outcome markets and defined them in HIP-4. They went live on mainnet on May 2, 2026 and trade next to perps and spot.

What does HIP-4 stand for?

HIP stands for Hyperliquid Improvement Proposal. HIP-4 follows the token standard (HIP-1), Hyperliquidity (HIP-2) and builder-deployed perps (HIP-3), and it adds outcome markets.

Can you lose more than you bet on Hyperliquid outcome markets?

No. Outcomes are fully collateralized, with no leverage and no liquidation. You pay the price of the shares up front, and the worst case is that they pay $0.

Who settles Hyperliquid prediction markets?

Hyperliquid settles its own recurring markets on its own price. Deployers such as outcome.xyz, Trade[XYZ] and Skew settle their markets alone, with no dispute window.

Is Hyperliquid prediction trading available in my country?

Not everywhere. Hyperliquid applies its own rules by country and by account, and some accounts keep perps and spot but cannot trade outcomes. Prow follows Hyperliquid's answer and shows Not available in your country when it says no.

What is outcome.xyz?

It is one of the deployers that lists outcome markets on Hyperliquid, including short Up or Down price markets. It defines and settles those markets itself.

Is Hyperliquid better than Polymarket?

Neither is best for every bet. Hyperliquid pays out by itself and keeps bets in the same account as perps, but deployer markets have no dispute window. Polymarket has a dispute step, but you claim your winnings and need a Polymarket wallet.

How do I bet on Hyperliquid without a wallet pop-up each time?

Use an app with a trading key, such as Prow. You approve the key once, and then it signs bets on your device. It cannot withdraw your money.

Sources

Checked November 11, 2026:

• Hyperliquid docs: HIP-4: Outcome markets, Hyperliquid improvement proposals, Fees
• 4pillars Research: permissionless deployment and HIP-4 volume (September 2026)
• The Block: validator-governed prediction markets (May 26, 2026), permissionless deployment (July 20, 2026)
• Polymarket docs: Resolution, Fees, pUSD
• Prow docs: Prediction markets, How trading keys work, Fees
• Prow data: Live prediction markets feed